Finite Sample Performance in CointegrationAnalysis of Nonlinear Time Series with LongMemory

Nonlinear functions of multivariate financial time series can exhibit longmemory and fractional cointegration. However, tools for analysingthese phenomena have principally been justified under assumptionsthat are invalid in this setting. Determination of asymptotic theoryunder more plausible assumptions can be complicated and lengthy.We discuss these issues and present a Monte Carlo study, showingthat asymptotic theory should not necessarily be expected to provide agood approximation to finite-sample behaviour.Fractional cointegration, memory estimation,stochastic volatility.

Fractional Cointegration In StochasticVolatility Models

Asset returns are frequently assumed to be determined by one or more commonfactors. We consider a bivariate factor model, where the unobservable commonfactor and idiosyncratic errors are stationary and serially uncorrelated, but havestrong dependence in higher moments. Stochastic volatility models for the latentvariables are employed, in view of their direct application to asset pricing models.Assuming the underlying persistence is higher in the factor than in the errors, afractional cointegrating relationship can be recovered by suitable transformation ofthe data. We propose a narrow band semiparametric estimate of the factorloadings, which is shown to be consistent with a rate of convergence, and its finitesample properties are investigated in a Monte Carlo experiment.Fractional cointegration, stochastic volatility, narrow band leastsquares, semiparametric analysis.

A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF THE AGES OF FOUR OPEN CLUSTERS

In this paper we apply a Bayesian technique to determine the best fit of stellar evolution models to find the main sequence turn off age and other cluster parameters of four intermediate-age open clusters: NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960. Our algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to fit these various parameters, objectively finding the best fit isochrone for each cluster. The result is a high precision isochrone fit. We compare these results with the those of traditional “by eye” isochrone fitting methods. By applying this Bayesian technique to NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960 we determine the ages of these clusters to be 1.35 ± 0.05, 1.02 ± 0.02, 1.64 ± 0.04, and 0.860 ± 0.04 Gyr, respectively. The results of this paper continue our effort to determine cluster ages to higher precision than that offered by these traditional methods of isochrone fitting

Differing lifestyles of Staphylococcus epidermidis as revealed through Bayesian clustering of multilocus sequence types

Staphylococcus epidermidis is part of the normal bacterial flora of human skin and a leading cause of infections associated with indwelling medical devices. Previous phylogenetic analyses of subgenomic data have been unable to distinguish between S. epidermidis strains with nosocomial or commensal lifestyles, despite the identification of specific phenotypes and accessory genes that may contribute to such lifestyles. To attempt to better define the population structure of this species, the international S. epidermidis multilocus sequence typing database was analyzed with the Bayesian clustering programs STRUCTURE and BAPS. A total of six genetic clusters (GCs) were identified. A local population of S. epidermidis from clinical specimens was classified according to these six GCs, and further characterized for antibiotic susceptibilities, biofilm, and various genetic markers. GC5 was abundant and significantly enriched for isolates that were resistant to four classes of antibiotics, high biofilm production, and positive for the virulence markers icaA, IS256, and sesD/bhp, indicating its potential clinical relevance. In contrast, GC2 was rare and contained the only isolates positive for the putative commensal marker, fdh. GC1 and GC6 were abundant but not significantly associated with any of the examined characteristics, except for sesF/aap and GC6. GC3 was rare and identified as a potential genetic sink that received, but did not donate, core genetic material from other GCs. In conclusion, population genetics analyses were essential for identifying clusters of strains that may differ in their adaptation to nosocomial or commensal lifestyles. These results provide a new, population genetics framework for studying S. epidermidis

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF TWO STELLAR POPULATIONS IN GALACTIC GLOBULAR CLUSTERS I: STATISTICAL AND COMPUTATIONAL METHODS

We develop a Bayesian model for globular clusters composed of multiple stellar populations, extending earlier statistical models for open clusters composed of simple (single) stellar populations (e.g., van Dyk et al. 2009; Stein et al. 2013). Specifically, we model globular clusters with two populations that differ in helium abundance. Our model assumes a hierarchical structuring of the parameters in which physical properties—age, metallicity, helium abundance, distance, absorption, and initial mass—are common to (i) the cluster as a whole or to (ii) individual populations within a cluster, or are unique to (iii) individual stars. An adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is devised for model fitting that greatly improves convergence relative to its precursor non-adaptive MCMC algorithm. Our model and computational tools are incorporated into an open-source software suite known as BASE-9. We use numerical studies to demonstrate that our method can recover parameters of two-population clusters, and also show model misspecification can potentially be identified. As a proof of concept, we analyze the two stellar populations of globular cluster NGC 5272 using our model and methods. (BASE-9 is available from GitHub: https://github.com/argiopetech/base/releases)

Is the Lambda CDM Model Consistent with Observations of Large-Scale Structure?

The claim that large-scale structure data independently prefers the Lambda Cold Dark Matter model is a myth. However, an updated compilation of large-scale structure observations cannot rule out Lambda CDM at 95% confidence. We explore the possibility of improving the model by adding Hot Dark Matter but the fit becomes worse; this allows us to set limits on the neutrino mass.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of "Sources and Detection of Dark Matter/Energy in the Universe", ed. D. B. Cline. 6 pages, including 2 color figure

Identifying spatial and temporal dynamics of proglacial groundwater-surface-water exchange using combined temperature-tracing methods

The effect of proglacial groundwater systems on surface hydrology and ecology in cold regions often is neglected when assessing the ecohydrological implications of climate change. We present a novel approach in which we combined 2 temperature-tracing techniques to assess the spatial patterns and short-term temporal dynamics of groundwater–surface-water exchange in the proglacial zone of Skaftafellsjökull, a retreating glacier in southeastern Iceland. Our study focuses on localized groundwater discharge to a surface-water environment, where high temporal- and spatial-resolution mapping of sediment surface and subsurface temperatures (10–15 cm depth) were obtained by Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (FO-DTS). The FO-DTS survey identified temporally consistent locations of temperature anomalies at the sediment–water interface, indicating distinct zones of cooler groundwater upwelling. The high-resolution FO-DTS surveys were combined with calculations of 1-dimensional groundwater seepage fluxes based on 3 vertical sediment temperature profiles, covering depths of 10, 25, and 40 cm below the lake bed. The calculated groundwater seepage rates ranged between 1.02 to 6.10 m/d. We used the combined techniques successfully to identify substantial temporal and spatial heterogeneities in groundwater–surface exchange fluxes that have relevance for the ecohydrological functioning of the investigated system and its potential resilience to environmental change

On Automorphisms and Focal Subgroups of Blocks

Given a p-block B of a finite group with defect group P and fusion system on P, we show that the rank of the group is invariant under stable equivalences of Morita type. The main ingredients are the construction, due to Broué and Puig, a theorem of Weiss on linear source modules, arguments of Hertweck and Kimmerle applying Weiss’ theorem to blocks, and connections with integrable derivations in the Hochschild cohomology of block algebras

Estudos dos instrumentos de planejamento governamental

Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso apresentado ao Departamento Acadêmico de Ciências Contábeis da Fundação Universidade Federal de Rondônia, campus Professor Francisco Gonçalves Quiles, para obtenção do título de Bacharel em Ciências Contábeis. Orientadora: Profa. M.ª Nilza Duarte A. OliveiraEste trabalho contempla com pesquisas bibliográficas em livros, site, legislação específica, e entrevista junto ao Controle Interno do Município de Primavera de Rondônia as normas e técnicas para elaboração dos instrumentos de planejamento da administração pública, sendo, Plano Plurianual, Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias, Lei Orçamentária Anual, onde faz-se menção a sua composição e aplicações penais ao descumprimento e inobservância. O artigo visa abordar de forma coesa o modo de tratar o planejamento governamental sem se enveredar nos caminhos políticos, mas no contexto técnico-científico do modelo legal de administração pública. Observa-se ainda, que a legislação é rica em orientações e formas, o que exige bom conhecimento técnico por parte do elaborador e que quando trabalhado conforme dispõe a legislação, o planejamento público coloca o desenvolvimento em primeiro plano e consequentemente atende os anseios populares